Lagos could lose its place as Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city to Angola’s capital, Luanda, by 2050, as Luanda’s inhabitants is projected to develop considerably quicker over the following 25 years, in accordance with a World Bank report.
The report, Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation, projects that Luanda’s inhabitants will rise by 78%, from 11.4 million in 2025 to twenty.3 million in 2050.
Lagos, in the meantime, is projected to develop from 12.8 million individuals in 2025 to 16.2 million by 2050, a rise of greater than 25%. Luanda is predicted so as to add 8.9 million individuals over the interval, in contrast with 3.4 million in Lagos.
Luanda’s inhabitants to develop quicker than Lagos
The projections present a widening hole in inhabitants progress between the 2 cities, with Luanda anticipated so as to add greater than twice as many residents as Lagos between 2025 and 2050.
- “Over this period, the population of Angola’s capital city, Luanda, is projected to increase by 78 percent from 11.4 million to 20.3 million. In doing so, Luanda will overtake Lagos as SSA’s most populous city,” the report stated.
It provides that Lagos will proceed to expertise substantial inhabitants progress regardless of the projected change in rating.
- “Nevertheless, Lagos’s population will still swell by more than 25 percent, from 12.8 million to 16.2 million, between 2025 and 2050,” the report acknowledged.
The projections are based mostly on calculations by the World Bank and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, utilizing knowledge from Schiavina et al. (2025).
Rapid urbanisation raises stress on jobs and infrastructure
The projections come as Sub-Saharan Africa continues to expertise fast urbanisation, growing the necessity for governments to offer infrastructure, housing, transport and employment alternatives.
The report estimates that the area’s city inhabitants grew from 170.2 million in 1975 to 912.6 million in 2025. Over the identical interval, the inhabitants residing in cities elevated from 64 million to 502.9 million.
The World Bank warns that inhabitants progress alone doesn’t assure stronger financial efficiency. Cities should create sufficient jobs or enhance labour productiveness to maintain residing requirements as their populations broaden.
- “A doubling of the urban population implies a need to double either urban employment or labor productivity over the same period, just for urban GDP per capita to stay constant—a daunting task,” the report states.
The report additionally notes that Sub-Saharan Africa added greater than 181 million city residents between 2014 and 2024, whereas actual GDP per capita remained round $4,370.
It estimates that the area wants roughly 15 million new jobs yearly to maintain tempo with its increasing younger workforce, highlighting the significance of linking city progress to employment and productiveness positive aspects.
Lagos’ city progress and growth plans
The World Bank’s projections come amid broader efforts by Lagos State to handle city progress, enhance transport infrastructure and maintain financial growth.
In April 2026, Nairametrics reported that Lagos State was updating its 2050 mobility master plan, shifting its transport technique in the direction of rail, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and ferry companies to handle congestion and put together for inhabitants progress. The state’s transport authority stated Lagos data greater than 20 million each day journeys.
In October 2026, Nairametrics reported that Lagos was expanding its use of digital mapping and geospatial data to improve land administration, infrastructure planning and concrete growth as the state manages its rising inhabitants.
Also in October 2026, Lagos State unveiled a development plan targeting an economy worth nearly $1 trillion by 2052, with 447 initiatives spanning 21 strategic sectors, together with infrastructure, governance, human capital and financial growth.
