Finally, the die is forged. January 16, 2027, just like the 2023 presidential run, guarantees one other three-way electoral battle.
And, because the countdown gathers momentum, the foremost political events are already assembling their marketing campaign equipment, making ready for what might change into some of the consequential presidential contests in Nigeria’s latest historical past.
Last Wednesday, (*54*) 14, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) inaugurated its Presidential Campaign Council, drawing membership not solely from its ranks but additionally from outstanding figures in opposition events, who’ve thrown their weight behind President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid.
Five days earlier, on Friday, (*54*) 9, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), had inaugurated its personal marketing campaign council for former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.
The third main contender, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), which is fielding the Peter Obi-Rabiu Kwankwaso ticket, has scheduled the inauguration of its marketing campaign council for Tuesday, (*54*) 20, barring any last-minute adjustments.
But past the flowery ceremonies, curious membership lists, political endorsements and acquainted declarations of confidence lies a extra elementary query: the place will the election be gained or misplaced?
For all of the political intrigues taking part in out throughout the nation, the reply might lie considerably within the North, a area whose electoral energy was central to Tinubu’s 2023 victory however whose political disposition in the direction of his re-election bid has change into an more and more essential topic of debate.
Indeed, if the unfolding political developments are something to go by, the competition for the North might be the defining battle of 2027.
Thus, with greater than 54 million registered voters throughout its 19 states, the North stays central to Nigeria’s presidential calculations. Next 12 months’s presidential election isn’t any completely different.
But can President Tinubu retain the area’s assist amid Atiku’s problem, the Obi- Kwankwaso alliance and the rising scrutiny of his administration’s report?
The area that equipped almost two-thirds of President Tinubu’s votes in 2023 is confronting a distinct political actuality forward of the January 16, 2027 presidential ballot.
Between Atiku’s northern credentials, Obi’s alliance with Kwankwaso, the politics of defections, financial hardship and the president’s formidable equipment, the competition for the North might decide whether or not Tinubu wins one other 4 years or turns into a one-term president.
There is one thing instructive concerning the renewed political exercise in northern Nigeria. From Kano to Katsina, Sokoto to Zamfara, Kaduna to Borno, and throughout the North-Central states, politicians who ordinarily would have waited till the closing phases of an election to indicate their arms are already making their positions identified.
Some are overtly mobilising for President Tinubu. Others are strengthening alliances with Atiku, a former vice-president, whereas a 3rd pressure is rising from the somewhat intriguing partnership between Obi, a former Anambra State governor and Kwankwaso, additionally a former governor of Kano State.
The exercise is hardly unintended. Beneath the endorsements, defections, consultations and more and more acquainted assurances of electoral victory hides an uncomfortable fact: the battle for the presidency in 2027 could also be determined considerably by what occurs within the North.
For Tinubu, the importance is especially compelling.
In 2023, his victory was constructed on a coalition that mixed the electoral strengths of the South-West with the appreciable political construction and goodwill related to the late former president, Muhammadu Buhari, within the North.
It was an association whose origins might be traced to the alliance-building that produced the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its historic victory in 2015. But 4 years in politics is already trying like eternity.
The political goodwill that helped Tinubu safe northern assist in 2023 is just not essentially transferable to 2027.
This time, he should defend his personal report, clarify the implications of his financial insurance policies, reply questions concerning the distribution of political energy and persuade a area scuffling with insecurity and financial pressures that one other 4 years would serve its pursuits.
He should achieve this towards a fellow northerner in Atiku and an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket that might introduce a wholly completely different dimension to northern voting behaviour.
The query, subsequently, is now not merely whether or not Tinubu can win the North. He didn’t win a majority of its states in 2023, but secured the presidency.
The extra far-reaching query is whether or not he can retain sufficient northern votes to stop his nationwide electoral coalition from unravelling. And the numbers clarify why.
The Mathematics of Power:
2023 Versus 2027
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Nigeria entered the 2023 presidential election with 93,469,008 registered voters. The newest reported register, launched in (*54*) 2026 forward of the January 16, 2027 presidential election, comprises 103,428,715 registered voters.
That represents a rise of 9,959,707 voters, or roughly 10.66 per cent.
More strikingly, the North, comprising the North-West, North-East and North-Central geopolitical zones, together with the Federal Capital Territory, accounts for 56,014,673 registered voters. That is roughly 54.16 per cent of the nationwide register.
Excluding the FCT, the 19 northern states alone have 54,282,630 registered voters. In 2023, their mixed register stood at roughly 48.59 million.
In different phrases, the northern states have added about 5.69 million registered voters for the reason that final presidential election. The regional breakdown is revealing.
In North-West, the 2023 registered voters had been 22,255,562 and so they rose to 25,083,411 in 2026 whereas Tinubu garnered 2,652,235 votes in 2023.
North-East had 12,542,429 voters in 2023 and by 2026, they’d risen to 13,965,475. Yet, Tinubu had 1,185,458 votes in 2023 from the zone.
The North-Central, nevertheless, excluding the FCT, boasted 13,793,424 in 2023 and as of final 12 months, it has in its kitty, 15,233,744 registered voters. Tinubu had 1,670,091 votes from this quantity in 2023.
Over all, the 19 northern states had 48,591,415 in 2023 and by 2026, the quantity was 54,282,630. But throughout the states, Tinubu solely polled 5,507,784 votes in 2023.
These numbers set up two essential factors. First, the North-West, with greater than 25 million registered voters, is the nation’s largest geopolitical electoral bloc. Its register alone exceeds these of the North-East and South-East mixed.
Second, Tinubu’s dependence on northern votes in 2023 was huge. Of the 8,794,726 votes that he acquired nationally, roughly 5,507,784 got here from the 19 northern states. That interprets to about 62.6 per cent of his whole votes.
The determine is important sufficient with out exaggeration. It additionally reveals a political irony. Tinubu gained solely seven of the 19 northern states in 2023, whereas Atiku gained 9, Obi gained two and Kwankwaso gained one – Kano.
Yet, Tinubu obtained extra votes throughout these 19 states than Atiku, whose northern whole was roughly 5.06 million. Thus, successful extra states doesn’t essentially translate into successful extra votes. Electoral margins matter, simply because the distribution of votes does.
For context, Tinubu’s nationwide margin over Atiku in 2023 was 1,810,206 votes. A hypothetical 20 per cent discount in Tinubu’s 2023 northern tally, with out compensating positive factors elsewhere, would symbolize the lack of roughly 1.10 million votes.
That could be equal to greater than 60 per cent of his earlier nationwide victory margin. This is just not a forecast. It is an illustration of how delicate the president’s re-election arithmetic might change into to even a reasonable shift in northern voting preferences.
Of course, registration is just not turnout. Ten million further names on the register don’t mechanically translate into ten million further votes. PVC assortment, voter motivation, safety, accessibility and the effectivity of election-day operations stay decisive.
But the numbers go away little doubt about the place the biggest reservoir of electoral alternative, and potential hazard, lies.
Northern Mobilisation: A Sign of Strength or Anxiety?
The emergence of some pro-Tinubu northern political teams deserves nearer examination.
On (*54*) 12, outstanding northern political figures working below the banner of Arewa for Asiwaju declared their assist for the president’s re-election after visiting Vice-President Kashim Shettima on the Presidential Villa.
Former Kano State Governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, spoke for the group, which is positioning itself to problem perceptions that the North has been uncared for below the Tinubu administration.
Shettima, has subsequently urged northern leaders to unite behind the president, sustaining that the area stands to profit from one other time period.
There can also be the Tinubu Again Movement promoted by the Minister of State for Defence and former Zamfara State governor, Bello Matawalle.
In Zamfara, figures together with former governors Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi, Abdulaziz Yari and Ahmed Sani Yerima have additionally participated in political efforts supportive of Tinubu. Senator Yari is the Director-General of the marketing campaign council for Tinubu’s re-election.
These are usually not inconsequential names. They symbolize many years of political expertise, organisational networks, conventional relationships and an understanding of northern electoral behaviour. But political endorsements are one factor. The capacity to ship the citizens is one other.
Indeed, the proliferation of assist teams raises a query that Tinubu’s strategists shouldn’t dismiss: if the president’s standing within the North had been as safe as a few of his supporters insist, why has convincing the area change into such an pressing political endeavor?
There is a believable reply from the president’s camp. Early mobilisation is proof of preparation, not essentially weak point. Having benefited from organisation and alliance-building in earlier elections, Tinubu’s supporters might fairly argue that they’re merely refusing to depart something to likelihood.
Still, the existence of electoral equipment doesn’t extinguish in style resentment, the place it exists.
For many northern voters, the election might change into a referendum on the price of dwelling, the effectiveness of safety operations, the supply of jobs, the situation of agriculture and the perceived equity of federal appointments.
The allegation that the administration has disproportionately favoured the South-West has acquired political forex in sections of the area, though it have to be distinguished from a longtime statistical conclusion.
For instance, a 2025 Federal Character Commission evaluation reported 401 northern appointments towards 311 southern appointments inside the positions it reviewed.
That discovering challenges any blanket assertion that northerners maintain fewer federal positions. But it doesn’t settle arguments over the strategic significance of particular person workplaces, nor does it cowl each class of presidential appointment.
Electoral politics often operates within the uncomfortable area between notion and proof. Tinubu might insist that his administration has handled the North pretty. The query is whether or not sufficient northern voters agree.
North-West:
Where the Toughest Battle May Be Fought
The North-West is the centre of gravity of the northern contest. Its seven states of Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi, have a mixed 25,083,411 registered voters.
In 2023, Tinubu obtained 2.65 million votes from the zone, making it his largest northern supply of assist. Yet, he gained solely Jigawa and Zamfara.
Atiku gained Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto and Kebbi, whereas Kwankwaso dominated Kano.
The area might consequently change into a three-way contest during which Tinubu makes an attempt to consolidate APC’s incumbency benefits, Atiku seeks to deepen his northern assist, and the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket tries to show Kwankwasiyya’s formidable organisation right into a broader presidential motion.
Kano: The State That May Rewrite the Poll
With 6,570,276 registered voters, Kano is Nigeria’s second-largest electoral state after Lagos. Its register has elevated by 648,906 since 2023 – the biggest absolute achieve recorded by any state.
In the final presidential election, Kwankwaso acquired 997,279 votes in Kano on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Tinubu obtained 517,341, Atiku 131,716 and Obi a mere 28,513.
The political circumstances have since modified essentially. Now, Obi and Kwankwaso represent the presidential ticket of the NDC, whereas Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, elected on the NNPP platform and beforehand recognized with Kwankwasiyya, defected to the APC in January 2026.
Yusuf moved with a considerable variety of state and federal lawmakers, bringing the APC an essential institutional benefit. But he additionally left behind an unresolved political query: did the governor take the motion’s followers with him, or merely its elected officers?
That distinction might be the distinction between victory and defeat in Kano.
The reconciliation of Yusuf with political pursuits traditionally against Kwankwaso, together with these related to former governor Abdullahi Ganduje, has given the state’s politics the unmistakable character of a battle over loyalty, patronage and political succession.
If Kwankwaso retains the grassroots loyalty that delivered virtually a million presidential votes in 2023, his presence on Obi’s ticket might make Kano an sudden battleground for the NDC.
But votes can not merely be transferred from one candidate to a different by political arithmetic. Some Kwankwasiyya supporters might resist Obi, whereas others might comply with Yusuf into the APC. Atiku additionally has historic relationships in Kano that might change into helpful if the rivalry between its dominant camps deepens.
Whoever ultimately wins Kano might not safe the presidency solely on that account. But dropping it badly might significantly injury any candidate’s nationwide prospects.
Kaduna: El-Rufai, Uba Sani and an Unsettled Electorate
Kaduna at present has 4,662,640 registered voters, in contrast with 4,335,208 in 2023. Atiku gained the state in 2023 with 554,360 votes. Tinubu acquired 399,293, whereas Obi secured a considerable 294,494.
The state’s ethnic, spiritual and geographic divisions make it proof against simplistic predictions.
Governor Uba Sani’s APC administration offers Tinubu an incumbent construction. But former governor Nasir El-Rufai’s political alignment with the Atiku camp introduces one other highly effective community.
There can also be Southern Kaduna, the place voting behaviour has traditionally mirrored grievances over safety, illustration and communal relations.
The 2027 final result might rely much less on endorsements made in Kaduna metropolis than on how competing events navigate these pursuits throughout the state’s native governments.
Olawale Olaleye
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