Crude oil costs surged above $117 a barrel on the weekend, reaching their highest stage since April, as fears of renewed US army strikes on Iran and escalating threats to power infrastructure throughout the Middle East heightened considerations about world crude provides.
This comes as oil theft and pipeline losses in Nigeria fell by 82.9 per cent in 5 years, from 102,900 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 17,600 bpd within the first seven months of 2026, amid recent considerations about additional will increase in misplaced volumes after years of decline.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Navy has uncovered 132,000 litres of stolen crude oil in Allison group, Bonny Local Government Area (LGA) of Rivers State, disrupting a possible storage level within the illicit petroleum provide chain as troops of Operation Delta Sentinel intensified their clampdown on oil theft and financial saboteurs within the Niger Delta area.
Nigeria’s oil benchmark, Brent crude, climbed by about 3.5 per cent to cross $117 a barrel throughout buying and selling earlier than easing to only above $116, nonetheless up roughly 2.7 per cent.
The newest rally adopted experiences that Washington was contemplating recent army strikes towards Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, elevating considerations that the battle, now in its eighth month, might escalate additional moderately than transfer in the direction of a diplomatic decision.
Iran had threatened to assault oil services, undersea cables, information centres and synthetic intelligence infrastructure throughout the Gulf if the United States and Israel launched a brand new offensive towards the nation.
Brent crude traded at about $72 a barrel in February, earlier than the warfare started, however surged to about $126 a barrel by the tip of April because the battle intensified and considerations mounted over provide safety.
Tensions rose once more in the course of the week following claims by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) that it struck 4 business vessels within the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
The US ordered some diplomats and members of the family of American authorities staff to go away Saudi Arabia, which had confronted continued assaults by Houthi rebels working from Yemen.
Oil Theft Slumps 82.9% to 17,600bpd in Five Years Amid Fresh Uptick in Losses
Meanwhile, official operational statistics revealed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) confirmed that each day crude oil losses, which fell to a five-year low of 9,100 bpd in 2025, rose by 93.4 per cent to 17,600 bpd between January and July 2026.
The figures within the fee’s fifth anniversary publication, ‘The Upstream Gaze’, highlighted each progress in curbing crude theft and the continuing problem of defending oil manufacturing and transportation infrastructure.
According to the info, each day losses declined from 102,900 bpd in 2021 to 55,000 bpd in 2022, representing a 46.5 per cent discount. The downward development continued in 2023 when losses dropped to 22,900 bpd, earlier than falling additional to 11,200 bpd in 2024 and 9,100 bpd in 2025.
The federal authorities attributed the lower in crude losses to the mixed efforts of the army, native pipeline surveillance teams within the Niger Delta, and the introduction of recent crude measuring units within the area.
The figures confirmed that Nigeria’s complete liquid hydrocarbon manufacturing, comprising crude oil and condensate, steadily recovered from the lows recorded in recent times.
Output averaged 1.63 million bpd within the first seven months of 2026, in contrast with 1.62 million bpd in 2025, 1.56 million bpd in 2024, 1.47 million bpd in 2023 and 1.38 million bpd in 2022. Production stood at 1.62 million bpd in 2021, the NUPRC information highlighted.
Crude oil manufacturing alone averaged 1.46 million bpd within the interval below evaluation, up from 1.43 million bpd in 2025, 1.35 million bpd in 2024, 1.24 million bpd in 2023 and 1.14 million bpd in 2022. The determine for 2021 was 1.31 million bpd.
In distinction, blended condensate manufacturing continued its downward development, averaging 170,000 bpd within the first seven months of 2026, in contrast with 190,000 bpd in 2025, 210,000 bpd in 2024, 230,000 bpd in 2023, 240,000 bpd in 2022, and 310,000 bpd in 2021.
The gradual enchancment in crude manufacturing additionally coincided with a major shift in how the nation allocates its oil, significantly the rising share equipped to home refineries as Nigeria expands its native refining capability.
Supply to home refineries climbed to 460,000 bpd within the first seven months of 2026, up from 280,000 bpd in 2025, 220,000 bpd in 2024, 20,000 bpd in 2023, and simply 10,000 bpd in 2022. Domestic refinery provide was nearly non-existent in 2021.
At 460,000 bpd, native refineries accounted for roughly 29 per cent of the 1.61 million bpd in complete crude oil lifted in the course of the interval. The allocation represented a 64.3 per cent improve over the 280,000 bpd equipped to home refineries in 2025, underscoring rising demand for domestically processed crude.
Similarly, the shift coincided with a decline in crude accessible for export, as the federal government struggled to satisfy native provide. Average each day crude exports fell to 1.15 million bpd within the first seven months of 2026, from 1.33 million bpd in 2025; 1.31 million bpd in 2024; 1.47 million bpd in 2023; 1.32 million bpd in 2022 and 1.51 million bpd in 2021.
The newest export figures had been down 13.5 per cent from the 2025 stage and 23.8 per cent from the 2021 quantity.
In the identical vein, complete crude lifting averaged 1.61 million bpd within the first seven months of 2026, marginally beneath the 1.62 million bpd recorded in 2025. The figures recommended that the rising allocation to home refineries has been accompanied by a discount in export volumes, moderately than a comparable improve in complete crude lifted.
Navy Uncovers 132,000 litres of Stolen Crude Oil in Bonny
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Navy has uncovered 132,000 litres of stolen crude oil in Allison group, Bonny LGA of Rivers State.
According to an announcement by the Director of Naval Information, Navy Captain Abiodun Folorunsho, the Forward Operating Base Bonny found the stolen crude oil below Operation Delta Sentinel, following actionable intelligence.
He stated the operation uncovered 10 dugout pits, including that the location and the recovered merchandise had been dealt with in accordance with extant laws.
“The operation reinforces the significance of intelligence-led motion in figuring out hid petroleum stockpiles and disrupting the infrastructure that allows crude oil theft and the unauthorised motion of petroleum merchandise.
“The Nigerian Navy will sustain efforts to locate and dismantle illegal refining infrastructure and disrupt the networks facilitating crude oil theft across the Niger Delta,” the assertion stated.
The Navy urged group leaders, residents, conventional establishments and different stakeholders to promptly report crude oil theft, unlawful refining, suspicious petroleum storage and the unauthorised motion of petroleum merchandise to the closest safety company.
Timely, credible info, the assertion stated, might allow swift intervention and forestall illicit actions from increasing.
“Safeguarding the nation’s critical petroleum assets requires vigilance and active cooperation between security agencies and the communities they serve. The Navy therefore urges the public to remain alert and support lawful efforts to protect national resources,” Folorunsho concluded.
Emmanuel Addeh and Linus Aleke
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