MTN Nigeria earned N1.86 trillion from data between April and September 2026, about two and a half times the N739.84 billion generated by Airtel’s Nigerian mobile-services enterprise.
But Airtel Nigeria grew faster from a smaller base. Its data income rose 33.8% yr on yr in fixed foreign money, in contrast with about 28.3% development for MTN Nigeria in naira, based mostly on a Nairametrics evaluation of the businesses’ newest monetary filings on the Nigerian Exchange.
MTN Nigeria’s monetary yr runs from January to December, whereas Airtel Africa’s runs from April to March.
Airtel’s half-year outcomes already cowl April to September, so, we subtracted MTN’s first-quarter outcomes from its nine-month figures to match Airtel’s April–September interval.
Airtel Africa experiences its ends in US {dollars} and operates throughout a number of markets. For the working comparability, we transformed Airtel Nigeria’s income on the disclosed weighted common charge of N1,360 per greenback for its Nigerian operations throughout the interval.
The evaluation additional exhibits that data accounted for 59.6% of MTN Nigeria’s N3.12 trillion in income between April and September 2026.
At Airtel Nigeria, data made up 54% of N1.37 trillion in mobile-services income. Across all its markets, Airtel Africa reported income of $3.823 billion for a similar interval, equal to about N5.20 trillion at N1,360 per greenback.
MTN additionally earned extra per subscriber throughout providers similar to voice and data. Its common month-to-month income per person (ARPU) was N5,150 from January to September, in contrast with about N3,808 for Airtel Nigeria from April to September.
Buying Airtel Africa shares provides traders a stake in its companies throughout Africa, together with Nigeria, so, we used the group’s revenue for the inventory comparability.
At October 30 costs, traders paid about N23 for each N1 of revenue Airtel Africa earned per share within the 12 months to September, in contrast with about N12 for MTN Nigeria.
The hole was a lot smaller when the comparability included debt and lease obligations and checked out earnings from working the companies.
Investors due to this fact have two issues to weigh. How a lot is MTN’s lead in Nigeria value, and how briskly does Airtel Africa have to develop to justify the upper value traders pay for its earnings?
MTN’s data income lead is wider than its subscriber lead
MTN Nigeria ended September with 57.2 million energetic data customers, about 74% greater than Airtel Nigeria’s 32.9 million.
Yet it earned about 151% extra from data over the six months. Having extra clients explains a part of the lead.
How a lot data clients use, the bundles they purchase, and the costs they pay can even have an effect on what every community earns.
Customers are utilizing extra data on each networks.
- MTN’s energetic data customers consumed a mean of 15.3 GB a month within the 9 months to September, up 16.2% yr on yr.
- Airtel Nigeria’s smartphone clients used 16.7 GB a month within the six months to September, up from 12.7 GB.
- The firms measure completely different teams over completely different durations, so the figures present how utilization is altering on every community.
- The dimension of MTN’s enterprise makes Airtel’s catch-up tougher. Between April and September, MTN added about N409 billion in data gross sales yr on yr, accounting for roughly 93% of its complete income development.
Airtel can develop faster in share phrases whereas the hole in Naira nonetheless widens. To shut it, Airtel finally has so as to add extra data income than MTN provides.
Its Nigerian mobile-services enterprise greater than doubled capital spending to $177 million throughout the interval. How a lot further income that funding brings in will assist decide whether or not Airtel can shut the hole.
What would justify Airtel’s increased value?
An investor shopping for Airtel Africa on the finish of October was coming in after a 177.53% rally to N6,300.
- MTN Nigeria had additionally risen sharply, gaining 66.34% to shut at N850. The rallies rewarded traders who purchased earlier.
- For somebody placing in recent cash, the query is how a lot revenue and money every firm can ship from right here. Start with what the businesses earned over the previous yr.
- At October-end costs, traders paid about N23 for each N1 of Airtel Africa’s revenue per share, in contrast with about N12 for MTN.
But consider shopping for the entire enterprise and taking over its debt and leases as nicely.
- On that foundation, Airtel was valued at about 6.5 times its underlying EBITDA, a measure of earnings earlier than prices similar to curiosity, tax and depreciation.
- MTN was valued at about 5.9 times EBITDA. Airtel’s premium shrinks to roughly 11%.
The stability sheets inform one other a part of the story.
- Investors paid N5.36 for each N1 of fairness Airtel recorded on its books, in opposition to N21.15 for MTN.
Past losses lowered MTN’s guide fairness, so its share value is being measured in opposition to a smaller base. That helps clarify how MTN can look costly on guide worth whereas costing much less for every naira of current revenue.
Outlook
On the income already earned, MTN Nigeria was cheaper at October-end costs. It additionally supplied a better interim dividend yield. MTN’s N26 per share was equal to three.06% of its N850 closing value on October 30.
Airtel Africa’s interim dividend of US3.1 cents, equal to N41.77 at its introduced change charge, represented 0.66% of its N6,300 closing value.
These figures examine interim payouts alone.
For MTN, the query in 2027 is whether or not its bigger data enterprise can hold producing sufficient money to help dividends after community spending and lease funds.
- “Our priorities are clear: sustain growth, protect margins, scale home broadband and rebuild fintech momentum, while creating sustainable value for all our stakeholders,” MTN Nigeria Chief Executive Officer Karl Toriola mentioned within the firm’s nine-month outcomes.
Airtel Africa raised its interim dividend by 9.2% whereas stepping up spending on its community. Chief Executive Officer Sunil Taldar mentioned the group had
- “Increased the pace of network investment to expand capacity and enhance service quality.”
At October-end costs, Airtel traders obtained much less interim dividend earnings for every naira invested.
The increased value they pay for its earnings might be simpler to justify if community funding and development throughout its markets raise revenue per share and depart room for bigger payouts.
