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Renaissance Capital Africa (RCA) has raised its valuation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE to N700.41 per share, representing a possible 33.4 per cent upside from the refinery’s preliminary public providing (IPO) value of N525 per share.
The funding analysis agency attributed the revised valuation to stronger refining margins and better-than-expected monetary and operational efficiency within the first 9 months of 2026, with income, earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), and internet revenue all exceeding its projections.
In an replace on the weekend titled: “Stronger Refining Margins Drive Earnings Outperformance,” RCA highlighted the refinery’s sturdy earnings progress and bettering monetary place as key components underpinning its extra optimistic evaluation.
For the 9 months ended September 30, 2026, Dangote Petroleum Refinery reported income of $22.5 billion and internet revenue of $4.7 billion, marking a major turnaround from the $117.2 million loss recorded within the corresponding interval of 2025.
Revenue elevated by 144 per cent from $9.2 billion within the previous 12 months, whereas EBITDA surged practically nine-fold to $5.5 billion from $627.6 million.
The refinery’s working money movement additionally rose greater than ten-fold to $3.68 billion, reflecting its rising capability to generate money from operations amid stronger refining margins and improved efficiency.
The improved earnings translated right into a stronger steadiness sheet, with the corporate shifting from a internet debt place of $1.73 billion as of September 2025 to a internet money place of $651 million by September 2026.
The shift, alongside the stronger money movement, it mentioned, factors to an enchancment within the refinery’s liquidity and monetary resilience because it consolidates its place within the home and worldwide petroleum merchandise markets.
RCA’s revised valuation presents a extra bullish evaluation of the refinery’s prospects following its robust nine-month efficiency.
However, the projected upside will depend on the sustainability of refining margins, working efficiency and broader market situations.
Meanwhile, Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals on Sunday introduced that its ongoing Initial Public Offer (IPO) has attracted overwhelming participation from traders throughout Africa and the worldwide funding group, with subscriptions acquired from greater than 90 international locations, together with traders from 51 of Africa’s 54 nations.
The scale and geographical unfold of participation make the transaction Africa’s first really pan-African public providing, demonstrating rising confidence in African-led industrial improvement and an growing urge for food amongst Africans to take possession of strategic belongings constructed on the continent.
Dangote Refinery disclosed this in an announcement, saying the provide has already rewritten the document books, changing into the most important public providing ever launched within the Nigerian capital market on its opening day and surpassing the earlier African document inside its first ten days.
It mentioned the achievement has been pushed by robust demand from retail traders, pension funds, institutional traders, asset managers, fintech platforms, and members of the investing public.
A supply near the administration of Dangote Petroleum Refinery described the milestone as a defining second for Africa’s capital markets and financial future.
“This offering is far more than a capital-raising exercise. It represents a historic opportunity for Africans and global investors to participate directly in the ownership of one of the continent’s most transformative industrial assets. The impressive participation from investors across Africa reflects a shared belief that Africans should not merely consume the benefits of industrialisation but also own the assets that drive it and share in the wealth they create,” the supply mentioned.
The outstanding investor response comes amid the refinery’s robust operational and monetary efficiency.
According to the supply, the refinery’s present efficiency has considerably outpaced the assumptions utilized in arriving on the IPO valuation.
“The refinery’s financial and operational performance has progressed significantly beyond the baseline assumptions underpinning the IPO. The combination of scale, efficiency, market reach and operational momentum continues to create substantial value for shareholders and reinforces confidence in the company’s long-term growth trajectory”, the supply mentioned.
The transaction has additionally accelerated the mixing of African capital markets by pioneering cross-border collaborations involving Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia and Kenya, serving to to simplify participation and broaden investor entry throughout the continent.
Management mentioned it views the IPO as a robust demonstration of the rising sophistication, depth and interconnectedness of African capital markets, whereas additionally offering a template for future continent-wide funding choices.
The refinery reiterated that the IPO presents traders a novel alternative to take part within the possession of certainly one of Africa’s largest and fastest-growing industrial enterprises, with the potential for USD-linked dividends, topic to the corporate’s dividend coverage and relevant regulatory approvals.
With the provide scheduled to shut on 27 October 2026, the corporate has intensified investor training and engagement actions throughout key markets to make sure broader inclusion and participation. It additionally emphasised that no additional extension of the provide interval is presently envisaged.
Speaking additional on the importance of the transaction, the supply near administration said:
“We are witnessing the emergence of a new era in African industrial ownership and capital-market development. The extraordinary response from investors across 51 African countries and more than 90 nations around the world is a powerful vote of confidence in Africa’s future and in the ability of world-class African enterprises to generate sustainable long-term value for shareholders.”
Dangote Petroleum Refinery expressed appreciation to regulators, issuing homes, stockbrokers, monetary establishments, fintech companions, investor associations, group leaders and the investing public for his or her assist and participation all through the provide interval.
Emmanuel Addeh and Peter Uzoho
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