Bitcoin faces THREE major tests – Can BTC avoid another 17% November crash?

This autumn has not lived as much as the bulls’ expectations thus far.

According to CoinGlass information, Bitcoin [BTC] is down over 3.5% in October, closing in on final October’s 3.95% decline. With the month approaching its finish, consideration is already shifting to November. And there’s a cause for warning: In November 2025, BTC fell greater than 17%, recording the largest drop since November 2019. So, may historical past repeat itself, or will Bitcoin lastly break the bearish November sample?

Notably, ETF flows counsel that warning might already be creeping into the market. As AMBCrypto reported, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $625 million in each day internet outflows, marking their largest single-day outflow for the reason that twenty fifth of June, when withdrawals hit $696 million. It is a big change in institutional positioning, particularly with November across the nook.

But from a macro perspective, this can be extra than simply random market noise.

According to the information from FedWatch, the chances of a fee hike have climbed over 10% and are up from 5.5% solely a day in the past. With the U.S. inflation at 3.7% in September, a fee hike chance might turn out to be much less of a far-fetched thought, particularly because the market expectations change. If the chances climb additional, Bitcoin would possibly see another macro headwind heading into November.

Naturally, that brings the main target to the larger query: Is Bitcoin heading towards another November promote-off like 2025, or may the market break the sample this time?

Bitcoin outflows mount as rising oil costs threaten market momentum

Rising fee-hike odds could also be signaling extra than simply considerations over September’s inflation information.

Rather, they could additionally mirror a rising sense of uncertainty about what lies forward. Brent crude has jumped greater than $117 a barrel for the primary time for the reason that nineteenth of March, as fears of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran gasoline provide considerations. That leaves oil simply $2 away from having damaged the yearly excessive. The key takeaway? The odds of U.S. crude costs topping $110 a barrel by the top of the month have surged to a brand new excessive of 34%.

From a macro stage, a continued rise in oil costs might exacerbate inflationary pressures, which may make a fee hike tough to disregard. On the opposite hand, CryptoQuant’s historic information means that rising oil costs have usually coincided with weaker BTC momentum, and if this development persists, Bitcoin may even see elevated promoting strain within the coming months.

In essence, macro FUD might be setting the stage for another Bitcoin promote-off in November.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin ETF outflows indicate that some “strategic” buyers are already hedging their bets as fee hikes odds enhance, inflation stays excessive, odds of additional oil worth hike will increase and bearish November patterns are again in focus.